{"id":960,"date":"2011-08-17T13:47:16","date_gmt":"2011-08-17T17:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/blog\/?p=948"},"modified":"2018-06-10T10:57:40","modified_gmt":"2018-06-10T10:57:40","slug":"aug-16th-bears-yell-fire-in-empty-theater","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/aug-16th-bears-yell-fire-in-empty-theater\/","title":{"rendered":"Aug 16th- Bears yell fire in empty theater?"},"content":{"rendered":"

David Banister- www.markettrendforecast.com<\/a><\/strong>
\nLet\u2019s clarify the SP 500 situation here: (Sent to my paying subscribers on August 16th) <\/strong>
\nBack on the Sunday night, August 7th<\/sup> I wrote an article forecasting a likely SP500 low at 1096-1100 ranges and explained where those numbers came from.\u00a0 We ended up bottoming a few days later at 1101.
\nThe lows at 1101 were a convergence of fibonacci weeks, months, sentiment bottoms and VIX extremes along with major insider buying all at the same time. Subscribers to TMTF were made aware of these convergences and were advised to watch 1089-1102 ranges for a major tradable low.
\nGoing back to the March 2009 lows, The SP 500 rallied up in 5 waves from 666 to the 1370 Bin Laden highs.\u00a0 At that level we had re-traced 78.6% of the entire 2007 highs to 2009 lows, a common turning point.\u00a0 Since then, we have had a 3 wave decline, also common for correcting a 5 wave move to the upside.\u00a0 The decline halted at 1101, an exact 38% fibonacci retracement of the 666 lows to 1370 highs.\u00a0 This is what I call a \u201cfibonacci intersection\u201d. The same thing happened in July 2010 at 1010 on the SP 500, where a huge bottom formed amidst two Fibonacci intersections.\u00a0 These are crowd behavioral patterns, and we identify them at TMTF for our subscribers.
\nThe rally since 1101 last week to 1204 pivot highs was a 5 wave rally, this is an early bullish sign that most people don\u2019t see. A correction of this 103 point 5 wave rally to 1204 would be normal, but the lighter the correction the more Bullish.\u00a0 So far the correction is only 23% of the 104 point rally with a gap fill at 1180.
\nLet\u2019s review the bull signals:<\/span><\/strong>
\n13 Fibonacci month\u2019s from the July 2010 bottom to August 2011 bottoms
\n7 Times in history we had the SP 500 double in a short period of time, and in every case it retraced 27-40% of the price movement from lows to highs. We just retraced 40% of our SP 500 double, historically very high retracement.
\nAt 1101 we had 38% Fibonacci ABC correction of the Bull leg from 666 to 1370
\nAt 1101 the SP 500 was yielding more than 10 year treasuries
\nIn 1974-77 we had the SAME pattern, which I outlined for everyone last week.
\nInsiders with massive buying, the most since March 2009 lows, corporate buybacks announced.
\nVIX at extreme levels
\nFear gauges were at extreme levels. Sentiment was over 50% bears with normal readings at 39%.
\n5 wave impulsive rally from 1101 to 1204 ensued\u2026 now a pullback is due. Same thing happened last summer 1010 to 1130, pullback to1040 in 3 waves, then another 5 waves up.
\nWhat am I telling everyone?
\nStop yelling fire in an empty theater\u2026.
\nThis is options expiration week, trading this week is notoriously difficult\u2026
\nThe Bear case is crowded, the Bull case is not.
\nI\u2019m leaning bullish as long as I keep seeing this type of confirming price action.
\nI\u2019m watching 1165 on SP 500 as a pivot low worst case, but as long as we see price action above that I like the set up for a while yet on the long side.
\n(But Dave, the textbook for Elliott Waves doesn\u2019t agree with you\u2026 good, that\u2019s why I use other indicators)
\n\"\"<\/a>
\nConsider subscribing so that you will be consistently informed, have 24\/7 Email access to me with questions, and also get Gold and Silver forecasts on a regular basis. Subscribe now with a 33% discount coupon ahead of our rate increase. www.markettrendforecast.com<\/a> for details.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

David Banister- www.markettrendforecast.com Let\u2019s clarify the SP 500 situation here: (Sent to my paying subscribers on August 16th) Back on the Sunday night, August 7th I wrote an article forecasting a likely SP500 low at 1096-1100 ranges and explained where those numbers came from.\u00a0 We ended up bottoming a few days later at 1101. TheMore<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[121,89],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nAug 16th- Bears yell fire in empty theater?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Aug 16th- Bears yell fire in empty theater?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/aug-16th-bears-yell-fire-in-empty-theater\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aug 16th- Bears yell fire in empty theater?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Aug 16th- Bears yell fire in empty theater?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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