{"id":937,"date":"2011-04-29T14:05:24","date_gmt":"2011-04-29T18:05:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/blog\/?p=711"},"modified":"2018-06-10T10:58:17","modified_gmt":"2018-06-10T10:58:17","slug":"be-thematic-in-your-approach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/be-thematic-in-your-approach\/","title":{"rendered":"Be Thematic In Your Approach"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Richard (Rick) Mills<br \/>\nAhead of the herd<br \/>\n<em>As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information<\/em><br \/>\nWhen looking for a dominant investment theme the approach I take involves looking at global or big picture conditions. I study trends, read the news, basically watch and listen to what\u2019s going on in the world. What I\u2019m looking for is something so powerful, so dominant, it\u2019s going to be my guide to where I invest \u2013 I focus on the factors that I think will drive headlines going forward.<br \/>\nIf you had used this approach almost a decade ago (and were to use it today) to try and identify major long term trends within which you can see long term opportunities you would have to come to the conclusion that the resource sector looks especially attractive\/lucrative.<br \/>\nIn the resource sector there were, and still are, considerable opportunities presenting themselves &#8211; investable themes always blossom from these major trends.<br \/>\nThree examples:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Obama\u2019s electrification of America\u2019s transportation system<\/li>\n<li>Growing human population climbing the protein ladder<\/li>\n<li>High oil prices, \u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<br \/>\nAfter identifying the major themes you need to study the different sectors in order to select the one that you think is going to match up well and outperform the rest.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Obama\u2019s electrification of America\u2019s transportation system \u2013 Lithium<\/li>\n<li>Growing world human population climbing the protein ladder \u2013 Potash<\/li>\n<li>High oil prices, reduction of carbon footprint \u2013 Nuclear power\/Uranium<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<br \/>\nThe next step would be to find individual Lithium, Potash and Uranium company\u2019s \u2013 based on the quality of their management teams \u2013 and make an early, well timed ahead of the herd investment.<br \/>\nAfter you\u2019ve made your investment, you need to show some patience and let your chosen management team, and the trend, go to work for you. Watch and wait. If you\u2019ve made the correct decisions, management conducts successful programs, does a creditable promotion job and the trend continues, you will reap considerable rewards.<br \/>\nThis is \u201cTop Down\u201d investing and in this author\u2019s opinion is the most rewarding way to invest.<br \/>\nMost people do not seem to realize that today there are two easily identifiable, and easy to follow over riding dominant global factors from which all of today\u2019s investable themes are blossoming from.<br \/>\nEach and every one of us, as investors, has to be aware of what is going on &#8211; we need to know the influencing factors on the economy and what is going to be influencing investor sentiment by driving headlines. Knowing what these dominant themes are, and understanding their effects, will help every investor decide where to place their money and see the inevitable corrections along the way as either a buying opportunity or perhaps that the end of that particular investment theme is near and it\u2019s time to head for the exits.<br \/>\n<strong>Urbanization<\/strong><br \/>\nMigration is defined as: the long-term relocation of an individual, household or group to a new location outside the community of origin. Today the movement of people from rural to urban areas is most significant.\u00a0<br \/>\nMigration cause can be explained two ways:<br \/>\nPush factors \u2013 conditions in the place of origin which are perceived by migrants as detrimental to their well being or economic security.<br \/>\nPull factors \u2013 the circumstances in new places that attract individuals to move there.\u00a0<br \/>\nUnemployed, poor and hungry\u00a0 (push factor) people from rural areas are attracted to cities because cities are perceived to be places where they could make more money and have a better life (pull factor).\u00a0<br \/>\nDuring the 19th and early 20th centuries urbanization heavily contributed to industrialization. Job opportunities in the cities caused the mass movement of people from the country to the city. These rural to urban migrants provided cheap and plentiful labor for emerging factories.<br \/>\nUrbanization is a macro-trend, in 1800 two percent of the global population was urban, by 1950 it was 30%. Today half of all the people in the world live in cities. This is an economic migration &#8211; historically poverty rates are 4 times higher in rural than urban areas. The UN projects that by the year 2030 there will be 1.5 billion more people living in cities.<br \/>\nNowhere is this rural to urban migration &#8211; and a higher degree of industrialization &#8211; more evident today than in China and India.<br \/>\n<strong>Chinese urbanization<\/strong><br \/>\nChina has set a goal of 65 percent of urbanization rate in 2050. Over the coming 40 years that means 20 percentage points of urban growth per year. This translates into 300 million rural residents becoming urban residents over this time period.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>At the end of 2009 mainland China&#8217;s total population was 1.334 billion. 712 million people or 53.4 percent of the population were residing in rural areas while 622 million or 46.6 percent were residing in urban areas.<\/li>\n<li>City&#8217;s Blue Book: China&#8217;s Urban Development Report No. 3 said China&#8217;s urban population is twice that of the population of the United States, one quarter more than the total population of 27 countries of the European Union and that the urban economy would continue to drive domestic demand<\/li>\n<li>The UN has forecast that China&#8217;s population will have about an equal number of people, the 50-percent point phenomenon, living in the rural and urban areas by 2015<\/li>\n<li>By 2025 China&#8217;s urban population is expected to rise to 926 million. By 2030 that number will increase to a billion<\/li>\n<li>China&#8217;s current urbanization rate of 46 percent is much lower than the average level of 85 percent in developed countries and is lower than the world average of 55 percent<\/li>\n<li>In 2010 the disposable income of the urban population stood at 17,175 yuan per capita &#8211; the net income of the rural population was 5,153 yuan per person<\/li>\n<li>Over the next two decades China will build 20,000 to 50,000 new skyscrapers<\/li>\n<li>By 2025, 40 billion square meters of floor space will have been built<\/li>\n<li>221 Chinese cities will, by 2025, have one million people<\/li>\n<li>More than 170 cities will need mass transit systems by 2025<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8220;<em>The growth potential of the vast middle and western regions, together with the rapid development of small cities and towns, could keep the economy on the fast track for at least 15 to 20 years.&#8221;<\/em> Wei Houkai, director of the center for China&#8217;s regional development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)<br \/>\nChina&#8217;s economy expanded at 9.8% in the quarter ended December 31<sup>st<\/sup> 2010.<br \/>\n<em>\u201cChina\u2019s GDP growth continued at a blistering pace during the first quarter of 2011, rising 9.7% from the previous year, according to economic data released by the People\u2019s Bank of China. Once again this outpaced many forecasts \u2013 even that of the Chinese government \u2013 and reignited the discussion of China\u2019s overheating economy. While its robust growth may raise a few eyebrows, the economy isn\u2019t in danger of red-lining.\u201d \u00a0<\/em>Will China\u2019s Economy Overheat? <em>Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer US Global Investors, <\/em><br \/>\n<strong>India\u2019s Urbanization<\/strong><br \/>\n\u201c<em>Every major industrialized country in the world has experienced a shift over time from a largely rural agrarian-dwelling population to one that lives in urban, nonagricultural centers. India will be no different. However India\u2019s urbanization will be on a scale, that outside of China, is unprecedented<\/em>.\u201d McKinsey Global Institute\u2019s report India\u2019s Urban Awakening<br \/>\nIndia has 1.2 billion people and the second largest urban system in the world &#8211; currently 340 million people.<br \/>\nLess than 60 percent of the households in India\u2019s cities have sanitation facilities, and less than half have tap water on their premises.<br \/>\nThe share of the urban population in India is expected to reach 40% by 2021, and by 2011, urban areas could contribute around 65% of GDP.<br \/>\nA report done by the McKinsey Global Institute called India Urban Awakening predicts that 590 million people or 40% of the population will live in cities by 2030 up from 340 million today. By that time, Asia\u2019s third largest economy would have 68 cities with populations over 1 million, up from 42 today.<br \/>\nWith less than 1\/3 of the population India\u2019s urban areas generate over 2\/3 of the country\u2019s GDP and account for 90% of government revenues.<br \/>\nIndia&#8217;s economy expanded at 8.9% in the quarter ended September 30th 2010.<strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Out of Control Spending<\/strong><br \/>\nThe federal deficit this year is a record $1.6 trillion \u2014 a number that requires the government to borrow 43 cents out of every dollar it spends. The US government&#8217;s total debt will mushroom from $14.2 trillion now to almost $21 trillion by 2016.<br \/>\nObama\u2019s projected $1.6 trillion deficit for the current year would be the highest dollar amount ever. It represents 10.8 percent of the total economy, the highest level since 1945 when the deficit was 21.5 percent of GDP and reflected heavy borrowing to fight the Second World War.<br \/>\nThe president&#8217;s 2012 budget projects that the deficits total $7.2 trillion over the next 10 years with the shortfalls never coming in below $607 billion.<br \/>\nProfessor Peter Bernholz, from the University of Basel, examined 12 of the 29 hyperinflationary episodes where significant data exists.<br \/>\n\u201c<em>Hyperinflations are always caused by public budget deficits which are largely financed by money creation\u2026The figures demonstrate clearly that deficits amounting to 40 percent or more of expenditures cannot be maintained. They lead to high inflation and hyperinflations<\/em>.\u201d<br \/>\nMost analysts quote government deficits as a percentage of GDP:<br \/>\n\u201c<em>The president&#8217;s projected $1.6 trillion deficit for the current year\u2026would also represent 10.8 percent of the total economy<\/em>.\u201d<br \/>\nThis reporting is misrepresenting the true size of the problem because it doesn\u2019t say how big the deficit is relative to expenditures.<br \/>\nOn February 14, 2011, President Obama released his 2012 Federal Budget. The report updated the projected 2011 <strong>deficit <\/strong>to<strong> $1.645 trillion<\/strong>. This is based on estimated revenues of $2.173 trillion and <strong>expenditures of $3.818 trillion<\/strong>.<br \/>\nHe then unveiled a $3.73 trillion budget for 2012 with a projected deficit of $1.1 trillion \u2013 a lot of savings\/cuts and revenue assumptions in the 2012 budget appeared to this author, to put it politely, to be pie in the sky. The savings and revenue projections have more to do with the 2012 election than reality \u2013 Obama is trying to appear fiscally responsible to the voters. It also doesn\u2019t look like either party can agree to any cuts except to those in someone else\u2019s (that somebody being from the other party) back yard.<br \/>\nThe US government cannot sell enough of its debt to its own citizens and foreigners to finance its deficit and pay the interest on its existing debt.<br \/>\n\u201c<em>Yes, we are monetizing debt. You buy bonds and you monetize debt. Right now, a lot of that is going into excess reserves so it is not having an immediate effect on inflation. It will initiate inflationary impulses. It takes time<\/em>.\u201d Thomas Hoenig, <em>President,Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, early March 2011<\/em><br \/>\nThe US government is already buying its own debt &#8211; this is the most inflationary thing a country can do &#8211; and it looks like we can expect this trend to continue and probably increase.<br \/>\nOn April 27<sup>th<\/sup> 2011 the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it will continue to purchase government securities &#8211; including reinvesting principal payments from its holdings \u2013 and confirmed its accommodating policies may continue for quite a while.<br \/>\nFOMC downgraded their economic growth forecast, acknowledged inflationary pressures have moved from commodity inflation to core inflation and said inflation remains too low.<br \/>\nIt should not be a surprise if the U.S. dollar weakens further &#8211; <a title=\"Obama Plus Bernanke Equals A Higher Gold Price\" href=\"http:\/\/www.aheadoftheherd.com\/Newsletter\/2010\/Obama%20Plus%20Bernanke%20Equals%20Higher%20Gold%20Price.htm\">when a central bank wants higher inflation they\u2019ll get what they wish for<\/a>.<br \/>\n<strong>Conclusion<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nIt\u2019s quite obvious urbanization is the driving force behind global commodities demand and inflationary pressures have moved from commodity inflation to core inflation. Both urbanization and inflation look set to continue for the foreseeable future. Of course there will be corrections but the dominate themes are set, the trend is clear. <a title=\"Security of Supply\" href=\"http:\/\/www.aheadoftheherd.com\/Newsletter\/2010\/Security_of_Supply.htm\">And there are other factors influencing the supply side of the equation.<\/a><br \/>\nPDAC curse, sell in May and go away, unusual amount of financings done late last year and investors are chewing through a wall of paper \u2013 pick your reason \u2013 A, B, C or D all of the above &#8211; the fact is junior resource companies \u2013 the owners of the worlds future mines &#8211; are on sale a little earlier than normal this year. If you like their management team, and their plans for 2011, than perhaps now is the time to be slowly acquiring a position for this summer\u2019s work programs in anticipation of fall results.<br \/>\nTwo factors \u2013 developing countries urbanization and US$ weakness &#8211; are so overwhelming driving the global economy and their effects are so in-sync with each other that investments in two sectors &#8211; commodities and precious metals \u2013 should be on every investors radar screen. Is it on yours?<br \/>\nIf not, maybe it should be.<br \/>\nRichard (Rick) Mills<br \/>\n<a href=\"mailto:rick@aheadoftheherd.com\">rick@aheadoftheherd.com<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/newsletter.aheadoftheherd.com\/link.php?M=15429&amp;N=136&amp;L=2&amp;F=H\">www.aheadoftheherd.com<\/a><br \/>\nIf you&#8217;re interested in learning more about the junior resource market please come and visit us at <a href=\"http:\/\/newsletter.aheadoftheherd.com\/link.php?M=17815&amp;N=147&amp;L=5&amp;F=H\">www.aheadoftheherd.com<\/a><br \/>\nMembership is free, no credit card or personal information is asked for.<br \/>\n***<br \/>\nRichard is host of <a href=\"http:\/\/newsletter.aheadoftheherd.com\/link.php?M=17815&amp;N=147&amp;L=5&amp;F=H\">www.aheadoftheherd.com<\/a> and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 200 websites, including: Wall Street Journal, SafeHaven, Market Oracle, USAToday, National Post, Stockhouse, Lewrockwell, Casey Research, 24hgold, Vancouver Sun, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, Huffington Post, Mineweb, Resource Investor, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold\/Energy Reports, Calgary Herald, Resource Investor, FNArena, MetalsNews and Financial Sense.<br \/>\n***<br \/>\nLegal Notice \/ Disclaimer<br \/>\nThis document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified.<br \/>\n\u00a0Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission.<br \/>\nFurthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.<br \/>\nRichard Mills does not own shares of any companies mentioned in this report<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Richard (Rick) Mills Ahead of the herd As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information When looking for a dominant investment theme the approach I take involves looking at global or big picture conditions. I study trends, read the news, basically watch and listen<span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/be-thematic-in-your-approach\/\" title=\"Read More\">More<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[121,89],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Be Thematic In Your Approach<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Be Thematic In Your Approach\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/be-thematic-in-your-approach\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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