{"id":303,"date":"2010-07-29T11:03:51","date_gmt":"2010-07-29T15:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/blog\/?p=303"},"modified":"2018-06-10T10:58:20","modified_gmt":"2018-06-10T10:58:20","slug":"jul-29th-is-market-topping-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/jul-29th-is-market-topping-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Jul 29th- Is Market Topping Again?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here at TMTF, I enjoy making controversial calls based on Human Behavioral topping and bottoming patterns, often referred to as Elliott Wave Theory.\u00a0 This is a difficult pattern recognition model to follow as there can be numerous interpretations.\u00a0 Instead, I look for additional clues like sentiment indicators, a few traditional technical indicators, headlines in the news and covers of papers etc.\u00a0 Recently I saw an article on Bloomberg indicating that short positions were at two year lows, with the ratio of longs to shorts at 2 year highs.\u00a0 Those types of indicators I use to help confirm if I\u2019m on the right or wrong track with a forecast.
\nRight now I think the SP 500 and markets are topping in a counter-trend ABC-X-ABC rally that really started with the May 25th lows of 1040, to the June 21st highs of 1130, back to the Jul 1 lows of 1011, and now to 1121 so far the highs.\u00a0 That 1121 number is a Fibonacci 50% re-tracement of the 2007 to 2009 highs to lows, and just 9 points below a 61% re-tracement upwards of the April highs to July 1st lows.\u00a0 Evidence mounts now that August could prove tough for Bulls and some risk aversion here is a good trade in my opinion.
\nBack in late June I saw similar sentiment and Elliott Wave topping patterns in Gold as well.\u00a0 The headlines were bullish, the talking heads on CNBC were all saying to buy any dip in gold and stay long.\u00a0 A 21 month rally was topping and I went ahead and stuck my neck out and predicted a multi month correction.\u00a0 Since then Gold has dropped from $1243 to $1158 at it\u2019s recent low, and should be heading to $1043 eventually if I\u2019m right.\u00a0 It takes awhile to knock the sentiment down from overly optimistic levels, just like with the SP 500 top in April which I forecasted in mid April as well.
\nThe SP 500 would need to clear 1130 aggressively for me to cave in and call 1011 the bottom.\u00a0 That was a 38% fibonacci re-tracement of the 13 month market rally, and it\u2019s possible that was the bottom for sure.\u00a0 Normally though, you would at least get a re-test of that low, and possibly a drop to 942 area on the SP 500 which is a 50% fibonacci re-tracement of the 13 month rally.\u00a0 In addition, the pullback so far only lasted about 8 weeks relative to 13 months of rally, so I think there is another several weeks yet before we can call a bottom in 2010.
\nBelow is an interesting chart showing recent action since late May in the SP 500 index.\u00a0 Investor\u2019s like to act in patterns and this seems to show a good one.\u00a0 Best to you and your trading!
\n\"\"<\/a>
\n<\/a>
\nIf you would like to learn more about our market forecasting service, please go to www.markettrendforecast.com<\/strong><\/a> to sign up for free reports and to see what we offer.
\nDavid Banister
\nJoin us today:\u00a0 http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/amember\/signup.php<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here at TMTF, I enjoy making controversial calls based on Human Behavioral topping and bottoming patterns, often referred to as Elliott Wave Theory.\u00a0 This is a difficult pattern recognition model to follow as there can be numerous interpretations.\u00a0 Instead, I look for additional clues like sentiment indicators, a few traditional technical indicators, headlines in theMore<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[121,89],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nJul 29th- Is Market Topping Again?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jul 29th- Is Market Topping Again?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/jul-29th-is-market-topping-again\/\" \/>\n<meta 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