{"id":2785,"date":"2014-11-07T21:22:40","date_gmt":"2014-11-08T01:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/blog\/?p=2785"},"modified":"2018-06-10T10:55:50","modified_gmt":"2018-06-10T10:55:50","slug":"metals-insider-shares-alarming-news-about-mine-supply-in-exclusive-interview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/metals-insider-shares-alarming-news-about-mine-supply-in-exclusive-interview\/","title":{"rendered":"Metals Insider Shares Alarming News about Mine Supply in Exclusive Interview"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\nWell, for more on the state of the gold and silver markets, and what a constricting mine supply and a hiatus from QE will mean for the metals, let\u2019s get right to this week\u2019s exclusive interview\u2026<br \/>\nExclusive interview with mining expert and metals market insider David Smith. We put the mining industry under a microscope and talk about how today\u2019s sharply lower precious metals prices will impact mine production.<br \/>\nDavid makes a forecast about supply shortages that you really need to hear. Don\u2019t miss my interview with David Smith.<br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/8StWIeJtYwE?rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\nTranscribe:<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> It is my privilege now to be joined by David Smith, senior analyst at The Morgan Report and regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com.<br \/>\nDavid, how are you today? Good to have you back.<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> I\u2019m good Mike, how are you?<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> Real good. First off David, before we get to broader topics I wanted to get your take on what&#8217;s happening here in the precious metals markets. We&#8217;ve obviously taken out some pretty major support levels. So what do you see from here from a technical basis after the damage that&#8217;s been inflicted on the charts over the last week in particular?<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> Well, you&#8217;re right. Some support for gold and silver that was expected to hold was taken out. There are some levels of support below that, but sentiment seems to be the big driver now. Most of the newsletters that are out there writing are negative, so that\u2019s putting downward pressure on. But what I find is really interesting is the volume of sales that people buying silver, American Silver Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs; the volumes are just amazing. They\u2019re also seeing a pretty heavy volume in Europe as well too, not to the mention the gold bullion coins. Kind of counter intuitive but it\u2019s kind of interesting that people realize value when they see it I guess.<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> One of the largest wholesalers in our business is just not taking orders for Silver Eagles and Silver Maples right now. It\u2019s really astounding. There\u2019s going to be some real fireworks happening potentially. One of the main reasons I wanted to have you on this week is because you\u2019re an expert on the mining sector and have dedicated much of your life to following that industry. We\u2019ve got some real issues brewing here from a supply standpoint.<br \/>\nFor instance, just last month one of the largest silver producers, First Majestic, announced that they would hold back a big portion of their third quarter production because spot silver prices are simply too low to make it worth their while to sell it. Their CEO Keith Neumeyer claims their cost of production is in the $15 to $16 an ounce range, but I\u2019ve also seen other miners report higher all in production costs that are closer to $20.<br \/>\nWhat\u2019s going to happen here? Will the mining companies follow the lead of First Majestic? Will they just stop production given these prices? Will they go out of business? What\u2019s going to happen here with supply given these ridiculously low prices that are really just a result of all the paper market selling?<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> I think all of the above. It depends on the financial status of the particular company. You mentioned First Majestic, they withheld over 900,000 ounces from the market and they may withhold more. Not every company can withhold some of their production, because a lot of them are just trading dollars right not if that. A couple of other companies have done this a couple times before on a short term basis to get a better price and sometimes they\u2019ve been able to sell for two or three dollars higher a few months down the line or a few weeks.<br \/>\nI think it would be very positive if some other companies took First Majestic\u2019s lead and it wouldn\u2019t surprise me if they did, because as you mentioned now just about all of them are selling at or below cost. Even some of the others that have kind of secondary silver supply coming from primary base metal production. I think in terms of the supply over the short term for people that want to buy silver the effect isn\u2019t going to be too great.<br \/>\nWhat I\u2019m concerned about is the intermediate to longer term with both silver and gold and especially gold, because I think that they are causing some systemic issues within the industry. Because as you probably know an awful lot of gold supply that comes in that is purchased as projects by the big gold miners; this comes from exploration companies from small companies that go out and take the risk and explore properties and drill a lot of holes and prove up a resource. Because the big companies they don\u2019t do too much of that.<br \/>\nWhat these companies a lot of them going out of business, or basically having enough money to keep their quarterly filings but no drill holes, this is going to impact the ability of the big gold companies to replenish their supply. Don\u2019t forget their mines are a wasting asset, their digging gold out of the ground, and each quarter there\u2019s that much less gold in their project.<br \/>\nI think if we look at what\u2019s happened over the last ten years with all of the high prices; we had gold from $300 to actually below $300 to $1,900, and there was only one major gold deposit discovered and the few intermediate sized ones. The biggest one that was discovered was nationalized by the country where it was discovered.<br \/>\nIf all movement can only bring about a fairly small amount of new discovery, you have to wonder what the situation we have now is going to do where the money is tight for exploration. And where the few remaining of any companies that are around are not going to be able to fill the pipeline of the majors when they need to replenish their supplies.<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> You alluded to sentiment earlier there. You\u2019re talking to the people in the mining industry. What are hearing? What are they telling you right now given what they\u2019re seeing in this paper market?<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> I think all of them are tightening up their expenditures and some of them are closing unproductive mine shafts, and adits. Others are cutting overhead, that\u2019s the responsible thing to do in any kind of environment. The big majors are selling off a lot of their assets, some of them are pretty good assets. Others are just not going to keep exploring them. You can\u2019t just turn around and wrap these things back up when the price goes up.<br \/>\nRight now with the sentiment being really negative and a lot of it has to do with people that have been disheartened because the price has dropped to where it is now. But as you alluded to a lot of this is paper selling, it isn\u2019t that the demand isn\u2019t there, because the demand in many cases is higher than it\u2019s been in the last couple of years. China and India continue to purchase large amounts of gold, both above and below the radar.<br \/>\nIt\u2019s really the paper market that\u2019s the tail wagging the dog on this thing. That\u2019s the thing where people deferring buying physical, they think they can spot the bottom, but oftentimes this like pouring liquid down a beaker and it comes up the other side just as fast. I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s what will happen, but it wouldn\u2019t surprise me if it did. When you get down into the area like this now, people that want to add more or that haven\u2019t take a position, I mean it\u2019s certainly a price that makes a lot of sense to consider buying physical at this point.<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> How long do you think this supply\/demand imbalance can continue before we get some sort of a pop and see higher prices to dry out the additional exploration and more supply, more scrap, what have you. How much longer do you think this can go on before we have to see something like that?<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> I think when the price turns around there\u2019s going to be, not just the investors are going to doubt that those prices are going to hold up, but the actual producers themselves and the explorers. Just because silver goes up to $18 or $20 that doesn\u2019t mean everybody is going to break out the champagne and start mapping out these big exploration projects. They want to see the price hold for a considerable time, so they\u2019ll be a lag. No matter what happens to price, it will take a while for the investors and the producers and explorers to believe that this is real and it will be sustained.<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> Switching gears here a little bit, you\u2019ve said before that the fear trade is what got you into gold and silver, but the love trade is what can make an investor rich. Explain your philosophy there, because you say that gold and silver can also be \u201cgood news metals\u201d as well; talk about that.<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> It\u2019s true, and Frank Holmes was probably the first one to popularize what you just mentioned about the fear and the love trade. Of course a lot of trade has to do with buying jewelry for your relatives and creating a dowry for your wife, especially in India, not your wife but I mean your daughter who\u2019s going to get married at some point. The beauty of having gold jewelry and being able to give it as gifts and have it yourself; there\u2019s a tremendous amount of demand for that and not just in Asia, but also here as well.<br \/>\nWhen the price gets down like this it really is appealing to people and you can see the volume go way up in the jewelry stores. Even if you\u2019re not buying jewelry, if you\u2019re buying an American Silver Eagle, or if you\u2019re buying a Canadian Gold Maple Leaf, or a Gold Buffalo, American Gold Buffalo, these are beautiful, beautiful coins. They are pleasing to look at, to hold in your hand, and to have as a store value. They do both of those things. They\u2019re not just something like you buy a fancy TV set or something. They\u2019re actually true money in addition to having value for their beauty.<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> You\u2019re colleague David Morgan has often quipped that markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you can stay solvent. I guess that\u2019s speaking more specifically to those that are trading with leverage and in the futures market and so forth. Markets do act irrationally for a lot longer. You can reach these extreme oversold levels, just like we could reach an extremely overbought level on the other end of this that investors will be reaping the benefits of. Explain that, talk about that mindset, sort of give a little bit of advice I guess to folks who are feeling a little bit worn out right now.<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> David Morgan has often said that these markets will either wear you out or scare you out. Silver has usually bigger percentage moves in both directions than gold. Of course, now we\u2019re seeing pretty good size moves in both of them. I think the thing for people to remember is that when markets are going down, especially when they\u2019re going down in a sustained manner like this, you\u2019re going to see, most of what you\u2019re going to see is negative reporting. When they\u2019re going up you\u2019re going to find all sorts of reasons why they\u2019re supposed to keep going up.<br \/>\nThe only way to really come out really well in these things is to try to be a contrarian and when the market is really lopsided, when everybody\u2019s on one side of boat, then that\u2019s when you want to take the other side of the position. Especially if it fits into your financial circumstances and you\u2019re plan, and you\u2019re ability to handle risk in this sort of a thing. By the time just about everybody you talk to or read about is saying, \u201cIt\u2019s time to buy gold and silver,\u201d well a lot of that potential profit will be gone, because gold and silver will be much higher than where they are now.<br \/>\nWho knows if this is the bottom; prices could go lower. Nobody knows and the best in the business will tell you honestly that they didn\u2019t know they were buying at or near the bottom until sometime after. I find it really works well, whether it\u2019s buying mining stocks or the physical, to have people consider buying in tranches. If you were going to buy \u201cX\u201d amount at a certain price and you think it could fall further, buy half of that or one-third.<br \/>\nThe thing is you\u2019re taking action regardless of the size of your purchase, as opposed to trying to wait and then think you can time it. Because once it really starts up either you won\u2019t believe that it\u2019s going up, or it will go up quite a ways, and you\u2019ll think well gee I could have bought it so much lower but I didn\u2019t. But if you\u2019ve been buying in increments, whether it\u2019s a particular mining stock you\u2019ve researched or the physical itself, you won\u2019t feel like the train left the station without you on board.<br \/>\nBecause you\u2019re continually adding at better and better prices, in a logical, rational, calm manner and it really makes a whole difference in the perspective that a person has with market action when that\u2019s going on. Because the market could be really moving in a big direction one way or the other and frothy, and you can be quite calm, and that\u2019s what you want to try to achieve.<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> QE ended last week, which caused a big downdraft in the metals, and then coupling that with the GOP\u2019s big victory on election Tuesday is maybe a bit of a one-two punch against precious metals. Is there a perception now that there\u2019s going to be a newfound fiscal responsibility in Washington, an improved economy now that the Republicans controls both the House and Senate.<br \/>\nIs that going to be a drag on the metals going forward do you think? Is inflation no longer a concern at this point given the recent Fed announcement\u2026a bit of a loaded question there, but what are thoughts on all that?<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> There may be a perception that things are really getting better, but you know the systemic problems have not even been addressed by either party. To think that there\u2019s going to be a sea-change because of what\u2019s going on, I think is overly optimistic if not downright na\u00efve. Because we have about two years before the next Presidential election, we have a lot of legislators that are up for election in 2016 that weren\u2019t now. Their primary focus is to get reelected and to get themselves committee chairmanships and things like that. I would be surprised if we see anything major that really solves any kind of a problem coming up any time soon.<br \/>\nThe issues of overleveraged banks and other entities, and the tremendous debt that we\u2019re carrying and the slowing economy globally, all of these things are going to be a drag on any kind of a big turnaround. When you look at the DOW having new record highs and how much of that money is actually coming from Fed stimulus money and from high frequency trading as opposed to individuals and large entities that are actually buying stock because they feel it represents value.<br \/>\nYou can see that if you look at the metals right now, which is about as contrarian as you can get, to buy the DOW versus the metals it looks to me like a no brainer that you would want to be very, very careful buying the DOW and less careful buying the metals. Because you\u2019re getting real value that over a really short period to intermediate time I think you\u2019re going to be pretty happy you picked up some, rather than just trying to wait for the all clear to go.<br \/>\n<b>Mike:<\/b> I couldn\u2019t agree more. Things seem to be teetering and maybe we are on the brink of some sort of a collapse and so forth. Very well put indeed. We always appreciate your thoughts and words of advice at times like this.<br \/>\nBefore we go we want to urge our audience to check our David\u2019s latest article on MoneyMetals.com. He wrote about how metals investors can learn a thing or two from the recent Ebola scare and makes some great comparisons there in a thought provoking article. We didn\u2019t have time to talk about it here today, but folks should definitely check that out at MoneyMetals.com.<br \/>\nWell, David thanks again, enjoyed it as usually and we look forward to catching up with you real soon.<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> It\u2019s been great to speak with you Mike and you have a great day.<br \/>\nThat will do it for this week. Thanks again to David Smith. Check back next Friday for our next weekly Market Wrap Podcast. Until then this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange. Thanks for listening and have a great weekend everybody.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.<br \/>\nAs publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this&#8230; <strong>90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time!<\/strong> Where will you be when this happens?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\n<center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/free\" class=\"sc-button\" style=\"background: default\"><span><strong>Join The Morgan Report Free for 30 Days *<\/strong><\/span><\/a>* 30 Day Trial applies to new user sign ups only!<br \/>Offer does not apply to Premium Memberships.<br \/><\/center> &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Well, for more on the state of the gold and silver markets, and what a constricting mine supply and a hiatus from QE will mean for the metals, let\u2019s get right to this week\u2019s exclusive interview\u2026 Exclusive interview with mining expert and metals market insider David Smith. We put the mining industry under a<span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/metals-insider-shares-alarming-news-about-mine-supply-in-exclusive-interview\/\" title=\"Read More\">More<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[121,89],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Metals Insider Shares Alarming News about Mine Supply in Exclusive Interview<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Metals Insider Shares Alarming News about Mine Supply in Exclusive Interview\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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