{"id":2706,"date":"2014-09-26T15:20:15","date_gmt":"2014-09-26T19:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/blog\/?p=2706"},"modified":"2018-06-10T10:55:51","modified_gmt":"2018-06-10T10:55:51","slug":"us-dollar-is-the-last-stop-before-gold-silver-spike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/us-dollar-is-the-last-stop-before-gold-silver-spike\/","title":{"rendered":"US Dollar is the Last Stop Before Gold &amp; Silver Spike"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\nOn the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, says, \u201cJohn Exter\u2019s upside down pyramid explains it very well. The derivative markets blow up and you go down the pyramid of liquidity. The step above the run to gold is the U.S. dollar. Most people who are under educated about money think if you have physical dollars under your mattress, you are in the safest position you could possibly be in. If you have all of your savings in physical greenback, you don\u2019t have to worry about a bank failure. That is the most important step until that doesn\u2019t work. When that doesn\u2019t work, faith in the dollar is lost or being lost, then where do you go? The answer is you go to money that has lasted for 5,000 years. So, to see the dollar have all this strength and look good, that\u2019s just the step before you go to the last step, which is a run to gold. So, it (the strength of the dollar) doesn\u2019t surprise me. It\u2019s part of the process . . . and the run to the dollar is a precursor that is absolutely necessary before the next step down the pyramid. . . . This is the big picture, and I see how things narrow down and why precious metals are so important in today\u2019s financial system.\u201d<br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/k8ClU5wFHXs\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\nThis interview went into several areas but specifically that the U.S. dollar &#8220;strength&#8221; is to be expected prior to the BIG run to gold. This theme is extremely important and because it means so much it was also discussed on the Butler on Business interview. This interview has been transcribed below so you can get a visual on just what to expect as investments move down into safer and safer categories.<br \/>\n<strong>Butler on Business interview transcribe:<\/strong><br \/>\n<b>Alan:<\/b> Silver has been under pressure. We saw a little bit of a pop when Mario Draghi did his thing last week. This is an environment where precious metals should be off to the races and yet it\u2019s been down for gold\u2026 they are taking gold out to the woodshed.<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> As far as I\u2019m concerned, and this is not about being right, or being stubborn, this is about my analysis, right or wrong. I really think this is the month where we are going to turn around, meaning that the bottoms for both metals could be tested. Silver broke below the $18.17 low that I have been talking about for a long time. The next level of support is the $17.50 area.<br \/>\nComing back to finding the bottom\u2014At times the powers that be will do their best to find it. So  for example when the bullion banks want to determine where the bottom is, just like back in the Rothschild days &#8211; read Jesse Livermore\u2019s book or do some market studies and verify this, you don\u2019t have to take my word for it. You will sell into whatever you want to buy. In other words, you may want to do some short covering in the silver market, the silver market open interest being quite large right now. Which means all the bets \u2013 silver going lower are open.<br \/>\nAnd so right now, the bottom I think is being sold into, in order to pressure it down, to see how much it can take, how much it can be forced lower. When it can\u2019t be forced down any more &#8211; and that point will be reached- then the open interest will decline and the short positions closed.<br \/>\nAgain we\u2019ve already seen it once, at the $18.17 level, we got that huge inter day turnaround, which is known as a Key Reversal! You\u2019ll see that the smart money, the boys that really run this thing, will start to cover. But once they start to cover, they know that the momentum changes. The momentum changes from going down to going up. And I really think, Alan that we are going to see that happen this month. Then will the price jump significantly? Probably not.<br \/>\nSignificant enough in that we\u2019ll see silver at the end of October at perhaps $20 or so, maybe something like that. Percentage-wise from current levels it will be significant.<br \/>\nWhether I am correct \u2013 or not- no one knows with absolute certainty,\u2013the question is how much more downside pressure can the market take before there aren\u2019t any more people to sell to at these prices? We\u2019ll just have to wait and see.<br \/>\n<b>Alan:<\/b> David, I had a contributor, Andy Hoffman over at Miles Franklin and he\u2019d given them a shout out a couple of weeks ago as a good place to buy gold. Andy was saying there\u2019s been a total disconnect between the paper gold and silver, and the actual physical stuff-so much so that there\u2019s far more paper than there is metal to cover it.<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> It\u2019s always been that way. Percentage-wise it\u2019s probably greater now than it\u2019s been at other times in history but that\u2019s true of all the markets. I mean, I want to be objective and fair, but  although the basic commodities hedging system that was originated I think was done with good intent, over time it has actually brought about unintended consequences.<br \/>\nBecause now all the markets have become nothing more that big speculative casinos. But the cover ratio in all the commodities is greater than the physical reality &#8212; and that\u2019s true of wheat, corn, soy beans, soy bean oil, etc. But for silver, as far as a coverage ratio goes, it\u2019s extraordinarily high. I mean, it\u2019s off-the-charts high relative to the other commodities. So Andy\u2019s right, and Andy and I have been at several conferences where he and I have been speaking about this to the audience.<br \/>\nBut I just want to be clear that this is true of the paper market \u2013 I mean, let\u2019s look at the big, big picture. Let\u2019s get away from metals for a minute, let\u2019s look at the overall derivatives. The derivatives market dwarfs everything else. Most derivatives revolve around interest rate structures and the interest rate structures are tied in with the zero interest rate policy which furthers the exponential problem that we have.<br \/>\nI was looking at Chris Martenson\u2019s crash course last night. Repetition is the mother of learning. I don\u2019t know everything and I like to review the facts from time to time. I forget the person that wrote this quote, so I\u2019m going to paraphrase because I\u2019m not going to quote it exactly. He said, \u201cone of the greatest fallacies of the human race is not to understand the exponential function\u201d. What that means is that compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. Once you get to a certain point, the compounding appears to accelerate and that\u2019s the problem. The system is set up to fail due to the exponential function.<br \/>\nWe\u2019re in that acceleration phase right now. The money supplies are going to continue to grow because the debt continues to grow. And this can\u2019t go on, it might be another seven years, another five years, I doubt it can go for another three. So we\u2019re going to see the debt problem accelerate, meaning that it\u2019s already built into the system, it\u2019s part of the system, it cannot be changed, that\u2019s just the way it\u2019s structured.<br \/>\nThe quote from Chris Martenson\u2019s presentation is correct&#8211;so few people know why compounding the debt is so dangerous. There has been something like, three thousand eight hundred paper currency experiments that have failed. To think that this one won\u2019t fail in some manner is preposterous.<br \/>\nNow will it fail to where you can\u2019t get anything for a bushel of dollars? No. Will there be hyper-inflation? I doubt it. But it will be a life-changing event where your middle class lifestyle is gone. That\u2019s what I\u2019m trying to get across and unfortunately it\u2019s falling on deaf ears again. It reminds me of when I was \u201cshouting\u201d at the bottom of the silver market around the 1998, \u201999, 2000 time frame. I just felt like I was shouting to the wind. Very, very few people were paying attention. Again, it\u2019s not about being right, it is about human nature.<br \/>\nHistory repeats. The facts are that this debt problem is a worldwide global phenomena, everyone is tied together, as the dollar goes so goes everyone. Whether or not the BRICS can circumvent the dollar and extricate themselves from the monetary system when this thing blows up and be sovereign in and of themselves\u2026 perhaps. I don\u2019t know, that remains to be determined and obviously they are trying very hard to make that happen or at least it appears that way. But in the long run, as I said, it used to be the adage, \u201cAs General Motors goes, so goes America,\u201d well, look at what happened to General Motors, take a look at Detroit. And I say the bigger analogy now is \u201cAs the US dollar goes, so goes the world\u201d.<br \/>\n<b>Alan:<\/b> Great analogy. I always say if you want to see what happens to a country when it loses its manufacturing base just look north to Detroit. When I first started in the gutter guard business, Detroit was a vibrant city with a lot of business, and now it really is a ghost town.<br \/>\n<b>Alan:<\/b> David, what would it take in your view to begin what the Austrian economists referred to as the crack up boom? They\u2019ve printed so much money, you know that the dollar will not be the lone fiat currency to survive. We may have a currency called the dollar twenty years from now but it certainly won\u2019t resemble, at least in terms of purchasing power the dollar that we have today. But the Austrians believe in what they call \u201cthe crack up boom\u201d where in just a short order of time everybody loses confidence in the currency and it basically collapses. Do you predict that is going to happen to the US dollar?<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> I think so\u2026 I think that\u2019s the essence of it\u2013it\u2019s a trust or confidence game. But I don\u2019t think it will come from the public. I think it will come from some other entity. In other words it could be a hedge fund, it could be a nation state, it could be a sovereign wealth fund, it could be a very large investor, but it will be something along the lines of an exit out of the bond market (U.S. dollar obligations) where the system is caught off-guard. The Chinese have just about ended buying new US debt; it\u2019s been that way for quite some time. And to a large degree, they have switched from buying debt to buying gold. That\u2019s been going on for quite some time. And they\u2019re doing it slowly; they are doing it the way a professional does. They are moving the market slowly over time so that they can continue to buy at the same price and not rock the market. That\u2019s what I\u2019m talking about, rocking the market. Where there\u2019s such a large sale that all of the psychology changes from everybody wanting to buy the US debt to wanting to sell the US debt.<br \/>\nAgain, to use an old analogy I\u2019ve used before, it\u2019s like a flock of birds flying along very happily going one direction, They are all in formation, everything\u2019s great and all of a sudden out of nowhere, for no apparent reason they take a hard left and all of them follow &#8211; they just make this abrupt change. That abrupt change is what I\u2019m talking about. I think that will happen. When, I don\u2019t know. It will probably be someone that is trying to exit the U.S. dollar market,\u2013 where they are trying to just get out but it\u2019s still a larger volume than normal or something along those lines. Or maybe there\u2019s a computer glitch that triggers a nation state releasing money, or to a bank or computer hack by some entity. Or else it may be some, quote unquote \u201cterrorist group\u201d spooking the market, so the hedge funds say \u201cOh my God, if we have an electronic failure here I\u2019m getting out of the U.S. Bond.\u201d And they sell, sell it all at the market. we see these big market sell orders going through that could trigger others to see it. Then that selling begets more selling as massive offsetting builds extremely quickly. It could be that simple, and I think something like that could take place.<br \/>\n<b>Alan:<\/b> Ever since Mario Draghi made his announcement last week, the dollar has been off to the races on the upside when compared to the Euro, but it\u2019s difficult to say it\u2019s just against the Euro because of what we\u2019ve seen with the precious metals. I\u2019m perplexed. We made a 52 week high last week because Mario Draghi cut interest rates one tenth of one per cent, and then increased the size of the negative interest rate depositors have to pay?<br \/>\n<b>David:<\/b> That\u2019s what I\u2019ve been explaining, as you go back to John Exeter, who was President of the Federal Reserve of New York. The New York Fed and he had an upside down pyramid, and I was probably one of the first to bring this to the attention of the investing public years ago. It\u2019s been updated by Trace Mayer of runtogold.com. Look at Trace\u2019s updated chart., It\u2019s actually a better analogy than John Exeter\u2019s because in John\u2019s day we didn\u2019t have the derivatives problem that we have now. In fact there were some, but relatively few options out there.<br \/>\nBut if you start looking for liquidity and people get scared, they move to safer and safer investments. So they get out of the riskiest ones, and then they move down toward the inverted base. Moving down the pyramid, the one step before reaching gold and silver is the dollar. But basically you go to safer and safer investments.<br \/>\nThe safest thing for most people is dollar bills in your hand. If there was going to be a bank failure and they\u2019ve got $4,812 in the bank- they had it all in cash under the mattress, in a safe or buried in their back yard, they\u2019d feel a lot safer because if there is a bank failure they\u2019ve got a tangible thing, a greenback, that they can go out and spend. Right now everyone\u2019s accepting that, in fact it is being more accepted: the dollar is strengthening, as you just said. So this is the step before their loss of confidence in that piece of paper. Once there\u2019s loss of confidence in the future value of that piece of paper -that\u2019s when there\u2019s the big run to gold, as Trace Mayer\u2019s website says in its title, runtogold.com.<br \/>\nThat\u2019s just the way it works. I can\u2019t change it, but I think it\u2019s important to know this. Since you\u2019ve asked this question, the reality is that we haven\u2019t taken the discussion to this level- this amount of depth before. It\u2019s complicated because basically, for the public, it\u2019s a matter of perception. The perception is, \u201cI\u2019m safe because I\u2019m in dollars.\u201d And that\u2019s probably 99% of the population. There\u2019s probably only one or two per cent who would say \u201cI\u2019m safest in gold.\u201d But it doesn\u2019t take a lot of people who get educated in a hurry once the dollar starts to fail to say, \u201cOh my goodness, what do I do?\u201d Then they look at things again, they lose confidence in the \u201cpaper promises\u201d in their wallet, and they literally \u201crun to gold\u201d. So I think we\u2019re getting closer. If you look at that upside down pyramid, you\u2019ll get a better feel for what I\u2019m talking about. Again, it\u2019s simply part of the process. You really can\u2019t skip that step.<br \/>\nSo I\u2019m not that perplexed by it. I understand and  accept it, but do I like it? No. I really would feel a lot more comfortable right now if silver was in the $30\u2019s and gold was in the $1600-$1700 range. That\u2019s actually where I think the precious metals should be, minimally at this point in time. With all that\u2019s going on in the geopolitical realm, with the war factions going back and forth, these sanctions against each other, the euro basically under pressure, the trust factor, who\u2019s trusting who, this NSA thing\u2026 all these things are still out there, and nothing\u2019s gotten any better.<br \/>\nLook at how much more difficult it is in world affairs today than it was during the 2008 financial crisis. Things have become more difficult and complex. In reality the stock market has gotten better and better and the propaganda machine has gotten stronger and stronger. If you believe the propaganda out there, people who hold views like mine are ridiculous. Why would you listen to me? &#8211; sounds like a broken record doesn\u2019t it, I\u2019ve heard it before and on and on. The boy who cried wolf, you know. I do feel that way sometimes. I feel why should I waste my time because maybe this is going to take place further out than I ever dreamed, maybe this isn\u2019t going to happen in my lifetime. But I really doubt it\u2019s going to hold together for all that much longer. Again, coming back to the reality, why? Because an exponential function is at work and as such it simply cannot be stopped.<br \/>\nChris Martenson does a great job on his latest Crash Course video series. He states something along the lines of\u2026 if you take a drop of water and let it double every second. If you walled off Yankee stadium, and put that drop of water in there, how long would it be before you were in the top seat and you were flooded out? Well, if I recall correctly, it would take 50 minutes.<br \/>\nBut even at 45 minutes, you\u2019d only have the depth of a couple of feet of water inside the whole Yankee stadium. So with only five minutes left, it would still look like you were pretty safe. You\u2019re thinking, \u201cThere\u2019s the whole stadium down there, the water\u2019s only a couple of feet deep, and I\u2019m way up here in the top bleacher\u2026\u201d But then it accelerates (due to this being an exponential function) and over the last five minutes, the depth goes from being a couple of feet of water, to completely filling the whole stadium. That\u2019s the power of an exponential curve- that\u2019s the power of speeding up. That\u2019s what I\u2019m talking about, and again that\u2019s built into the system. See: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iIwyMif5EOg<br \/>\nIt cannot be changed, it won\u2019t be changed, and no matter what the propaganda machine throws at you, that is the reality. It will accelerate. It is accelerating as we speak. I have no doubt that we are going to see this thing take place in the next couple of years, at the longest. I really don\u2019t see this thing going on for five, six, or seven years longer. It just can\u2019t. The exponential function is what it i. We\u2019re 17 trillion dollars in the hole. Look, it took all the presidencies from the Founding Fathers to Bush to get us to like 8 trillion in debt, and then it doubled from 8 to 17 trillion under Barack. This shows you clearly that things ARE accelerating. Is it Barack\u2019s fault? No, I\u2019m not blaming him; I\u2019m just saying that regardless of under which administration it happened, that\u2019s the power of the exponential function. So when it goes from 17 to 34 trillion, where does it stop? At some point the people holding US debts say, \u201cThis is never going to stop, I must do something, I will go to cash.\u201d<br \/>\nThen, when cash doesn\u2019t work, they head for the bottom of Exeter\u2019s and Meyer\u2019s pyramid and literally \u201cRun to Gold\u201d.  At that point, the problem for the majority of people, is that there will simply not be nearly enough gold \u2013 silver to go around. At least at anything close to what we\u2019ve come to think of now as a reasonable price.<br \/>\nDavid Morgan<br \/>\nFounder: Silver-Investor.com<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.<br \/>\nAs publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this&#8230; <strong>90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time!<\/strong> Where will you be when this happens?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\n<center><a href=\"http:\/\/www.silver-investor.com\/free\" class=\"sc-button\" style=\"background: default\"><span><strong>Join The Morgan Report Free for 30 Days *<\/strong><\/span><\/a>* 30 Day Trial applies to new user sign ups only!<br \/>Offer does not apply to Premium Memberships.<br \/><\/center> &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; On the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, says, \u201cJohn Exter\u2019s upside down pyramid explains it very well. The derivative markets blow up and you go down the pyramid of liquidity. The step above the run to gold is the U.S. dollar. Most people who are under educated about money<span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/us-dollar-is-the-last-stop-before-gold-silver-spike\/\" title=\"Read More\">More<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[121,89],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US Dollar is the Last Stop Before Gold &amp; Silver Spike<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US Dollar is the Last Stop Before Gold &amp; Silver Spike\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.themorganreport.com\/blog\/us-dollar-is-the-last-stop-before-gold-silver-spike\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Dollar is the Last Stop Before Gold &amp; 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