Silver Fear Cycles: Same Story, Different Day | https://www.themorganreport.com
David Morgan reviews the year-to-date performance of metals and energy, noting strong gains in aluminum, tin, nickel, zinc, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline, while gold leads the precious metals and silver remains positive but appears to be trading in a range. His view is that gold, silver, and the white metals may continue moving sideways through summer or longer unless an extraordinary event breaks the market out of its current pattern.
He emphasizes that silver has already had a major run, but he does not believe it has reached its final top. The larger monetary thesis remains intact: the fiat system continues to weaken, capital is still moving toward precious metals, and the sector remains undervalued, under-owned, and misunderstood. Morgan believes silver may need time to build a base before the next major advance.
The main focus is correcting the recurring claim that COMEX silver failure is imminent. Morgan explains that COMEX is a futures exchange, not a bullion dealer, and most contracts never intend to take delivery. Comparing total open interest to registered silver inventories is misleading because only a small percentage of contracts usually result in delivery.
He also explains that many deliveries are simply bullion bank to bullion bank transfers, where ownership changes on paper but the metal often remains inside the system. Cash settlement is possible under the contract terms, but Morgan argues it would be a last-resort systemic event, not something likely to happen because of one scary spreadsheet or delivery-month headline.
His bottom line is that investors should watch real stress indicators such as lease rates, backwardation, physical premiums across London, New York, and Shanghai, ETF flows, refinery throughput, and arbitrage flows. He does not see evidence of imminent COMEX failure. The real danger, in his view, is investors being pushed into bad bets by fear-driven narratives rather than grounded analysis.
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